The United Nations decided natural apocalypse scenarios
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of the danger of greenhouse gas emissions to billions of people. Reuters photo
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published a new report calling for further reductions in the industry’s impact on global warming. Scientists promise catastrophic future consequences of rising greenhouse gas emissions. However, Europeans have already felt the consequences of a future green shift in the industry on their wallets. Electricity and gas prices in Europe rose by tens of percent. The Europeans have already made it clear that the era of cheap gas is over for them. Additional profits from future green flows will be the first for gas suppliers to Europe, including from Russia.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in a report Monday that many climate changes are virtually irreversible if humanity does not urgently take out emissions. It has been asserted that the increase in the volume of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is “clearly caused by human activity”. The report says that the CO2 concentration in 2019 was the highest in at least the last two million years.
“The evidence is indisputable: greenhouse gas emissions are choking our planet and putting billions of people at risk. Global warming affects every region on Earth, and many changes are becoming irreversible. We must act decisively to avoid catastrophe,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. climatic”.
The report notes that human-caused global warming is already more than 1 degree off pre-industrial levels, and if greenhouse gas emissions are not urgently reduced, it will not be possible to limit the increase in average global temperature to 1.5 Or even two degrees in the coming decades. With an increase of 1.5 degrees, the number of abnormal heat waves will increase, warm seasons will become longer, and cold seasons will be shorter. The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850, the report’s authors note (according to the European Copernican program, June 2021 was the hottest ever in the history of climate monitoring in North America, and in Europe the “honourable” took second place).
The IPCC Summary Reports are published every 6-7 years (the first appeared in 1990). The document presented on Monday (in addition to Geneva, it was also presented by Russian climatologists in Moscow) is part of the Sixth Assessment Report, the full text of which will appear in 2022. At the same time, it is planned to publish the Third Assessment Report of Roshydromet on climate change and its consequences on the territory of Russian Federation.
Humanity is already concerned with the climate problem, the most advanced program has been prepared by a united Europe, which wants to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. NG has already written about some strange proposals for rapid climate change: many large financial centers offer to save the planet By buying and closing coal companies in Asia (see NG on 08/21/04).
Russia faces huge direct losses from the destruction of infrastructure in the Arctic due to thawing permafrost, yet it occupies 60% of the country’s territory (see “NG” of 27/7/21). Climate change has also caused significant fluctuations in the prices of Russia’s primary commodity – hydrocarbons. Since the beginning of July, a sharp increase in the cost of gas and electricity has been recorded in Europe. And the price of blue fuel in the stock exchange last week hit another record there, and it is now $540 per thousand cubic metres. m. For example, in Germany, the cost of electricity in July jumped to the most since 2000 (83.6 euros per MWh), and prices rose to record levels in the UK, Spain and Italy. Since July, the cost of gas for households in Lithuania has increased by 36.8%, and in Latvia for electricity – by almost 40%.
|Energy from fossil fuels in Europe
May be subject to environmental taxes. Reuters photo
Bloomberg noted that Europe faces an energy shock not only as the global economy emerges from a pandemic. In Europe, prices have soared due to strict plans to decarbonize the economy as utilities pay big dollars for the permits they need to produce energy from fossil fuels. According to the Swiss publication Swissinfo.ch, the highest CO₂ tax in the world is currently paid in Sweden at $137 per ton, followed by Switzerland at $101, in France the half tax is at $52.4, and in the UK – 24.8. According to Bloomberg, the era when gas was cheap is over all over the world.
“The increase in gas and electricity prices in Europe is due to several reasons, including opportunistic weather factors (cold winters and hot summers with a corresponding increase in energy costs for heating and air conditioning) and fundamental factors of rapid energy transition and liberalization of gas markets,” a leading expert from the university Finance and National Energy Security Fund (FNEB) Stanislav Mitrahović. The Europeans themselves have embarked on a path of accelerating the maximization of the share of renewables (RES) in their energy mix, despite the lack of affordable and scalable industrial energy storage systems relative to the size of the economy. The necessary investments in gas infrastructure were often denied, and there were even facts about the closure of already built gas generating facilities. As a result, high prices for energy resources will soon begin to irritate residents of European countries. And this situation threatens to become a political problem for European elites, who have not explained to their constituents that during the energy transition, a significant increase in energy prices is very likely.”
The European Green Deal may be accompanied by difficulties due to high energy prices for consumers and their expected dissatisfaction, but on the other hand, one can see how much the European countries themselves will pay in order to eliminate the consequences of natural disasters such as floods. Vasily Yablokov, head of the climate and energy department at the Russian branch of Greenpeace, told NG. “We are also seeing a rapid shift to renewables and a decrease in the prices of their installation and use – the more widely implemented, the cheaper green energy becomes. Rising fossil fuel prices are spurring the development of green infrastructure, development of storage systems, green hydrogen production, etc. That is, while half-measures, including attempts to preserve the role of fossil fuels, on the contrary, slow development and threaten the achievement of climate goals,” says the expert.
In principle, Yablokov agrees, the era of cheap gas and energy is coming to an end. This is due to both the global energy transition and the depletion of easily accessible reserves of fossil fuels. Cheap mining and burning of coal, oil and gas are very costly to mankind and cannot be considered as a source of energy in the future. In the near future, we must move to 100% green and clean energy, avoiding wrong solutions like nuclear power, hydroelectric dams, and the sooner we bring about a technological revolution, the less we will pay for the consequences of such a wasteful attitude. towards natural resources. Dr.. Mendeleev, says Yablokov: “Burning oil is like heating a burner with banknotes,” in this case, it is also associated with gas.
Analyst Sergey Kaufman at FENAM believes that predictions about the beginning of the era of expensive energy carriers are somewhat premature: “Our forecasts are not very radical. We should not expect a global deficit just yet, so we consider the long-term equilibrium price of gas (and LNG, LNG) is $ 250 per thousand cubic meters. m, as this price is enough to build cost-effective new projects. At the same time, in the event of another cold winter and under the influence of delays in the construction of some LNG projects due to the epidemic, it may remain Prices are at a high level in the next year or two, but even for this scenario, the current price of 540 per thousand cubic meters m seems expensive.
Moving away from coal as part of reducing the carbon footprint is one of the main reasons for the current and future growth in demand for clean gas, however, on average, supplies in the gas and LNG market have successfully followed demand over the past decade as the expert explains. “The current price hike is likely due to domestic factors, among which we can identify a decrease in stocks due to cold winters and hot summers in Europe and Asia, as well as Gazprom’s unwillingness to increase supplies until the launch of Nord Stream 2. At the same time, it will be It is wrong to say that a cold winter or a hot summer is caused by climate change, given that so far we are talking about an increase in the average temperature of only 1.1 ° We also note that the gas has not yet been included in the Transboundary Carbon Regulation Project, so this factor It doesn’t yet affect prices,” Kaufman says.
The path factor toward diversification of gas supplies (ie, “combating Gazprom’s influence”) also played a role in shaping the high price, says Mitrakhovich. Were it not for the notorious “diversification”, it would have been possible to launch bypass gas pipelines much earlier. Now the EU will have a choice – let Nord Stream 2 and OPAL run at full capacity, and not interfere with the operation of Balkan Stream (then prices will tend to fall) , or, under antitrust pretexts, to restrict the operation of bypass gas pipelines – then prices will be higher than in the scenario of full operation of these pipelines, ”says the expert.
Over the next 20 years, as the global economy shifts away from coal, demand for natural gas (mainly in the form of liquefied natural gas) is likely to rise, Kaufman continues. According to various forecasts, by 2040, the demand for liquefied natural gas may grow by 75-100%. However, the world’s leading agencies made similar predictions several years ago. This has allowed major players in the LNG market to develop long-term plans for production growth. For example, Qatar will produce 110 million tons of LNG by 2025 compared to 77 million tons now. Some major oil and gas companies and LNG producers in the United States have similar plans. Russia plans to increase LNG production from the current 30 million tons to 140 million by 2035, he says.