Why Europe’s accelerated transition to a green economy has failed
Despite the decline in gas prices in Europe, the situation is still difficult and experts are sure that new energy crises are not far away, which will also hit Asia. The reason for this may be the ill-considered attempts at an accelerating pace to replace traditional energy with green energy. The crises will continue until, in the process of the energy transition, economic calculations prevail over the political considerations currently guiding the European Union.
Now market participants are focusing on Asia, where experts are seeing signs of a new energy crisis. For example, Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, until the end of January banned its shipments abroad for the domestic market.
Economist Mikhail Khazin connects the instability in the markets with the fact that as a result of mass propaganda for the “greening” of the economy, companies began to “underinvest” in conventional energy and decided that unconventional sources could completely replace traditional ones . “It turned out to be unsuccessful. The expert pointed out that either the wind does not blow, or some other natural disaster. – The problem is that in order to compensate for these lost non-conventional abilities, it is necessary to release traditional ones. The traditional ones are working perfectly, as if dilapidated Indeed – they are stupidly absent. As Khazen says, the propaganda campaign for “greening” the economy began before it became clear exactly how much money and technologies should be used to move in. At the same time, it is now clear that in order to completely replace traditional sources with renewables, no There is enough technology.” Moreover, it turned out that in order to launch these non-traditional industries, you need to extract all kinds of minerals (cobalt, lead), which, by the way, are also not good for nature, you need to understand what to do with recycling . For example, where the grinder blades are disposed of is not fully understood, and they are not recycled in nature. And all of these are unresolved problems, says Khazen.
At the same time, the organizers of the transition did not take into account the shortage of resources that arose with such an accelerating acceleration. For example, the price of lithium, used in batteries, has increased by 560% over the past year, Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, draws attention.
Leonid Krutakov, assistant professor at the Government of the Russian Federation Financial University, agrees with Mikhail Khazin, who believes that the “green noise” was an attempt to impose new, politically certain rules of behavior in the energy sector for the whole world. “All we’re seeing so far, being done in green energy, is a new tax on hydrocarbons,” says the expert. In his opinion, green energy is a myth. It was created as a purely political project. We do not know a single business project that is justified from the point of view of finances and investments and how this will happen. We only see political statements and statements. And we see the result today in the form of a price hike,” says the analyst. He points out that the same windmills and solar panels need to be changed periodically, and for their production you need huge energy, which is produced from hydrocarbons. That is, it is a closed cycle that gives nothing but financial effects. , creating new markets. And we’ve seen what new markets are by the number of diluents and by the amount of helicopter money the world is pumping out, and by the inflation that is now. The US shows 7% – that’s their calculation. Real inflation is much higher if we take the whole consumption basket. So, the world on The brink of a global energy crisis,” says Krutakov.
According to him, from 2000 to 2015, the five leading companies in the world – ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Total – quadrupled from 29 to 121 billion dollars, and increased their investment in production, while their production decreased from 507 to 443 And the share in global reserves decreased from 3.5 to 2.2%. “Total capital employed grew from 310 to 902 billion, while profitability decreased from 18 to 4, that is, Western companies were left without oil,” says Krutakov. – In this sense, energy in carbon energy began to transfer to national state-owned enterprises: Chinese (Sinopec), Indian and Russian – Rosneft and Gazprom. Passed, there is a flow of energy in the world. And energy is the engine of the world economy, the engine. There is nothing else, nothing else. Therefore, it was necessary to review the financial conditions. Hence the green energy.
Alexander Frolov is sure that the hasty and ill-considered attempts to switch to “green energy” are connected with political factors. “From the point of view of the European Union, the transition, the growth in the share of energy generation from wind and solar, was justified by the fact that, according to the forecasts expressed there in the zero years, it was assumed that Europe would increase its dependence on energy imports, primarily on gas And Europe at that time was the largest manufacturer of equipment for solar power plants and wind farms. And there they scratched their heads and decided: Come on, we are a very attractive market, therefore, gas will be delivered to us, oil will be delivered to us, and suppliers will compete with each other, pay elbows, lower prices And they offer us very profitable offers. At the same time, we will also start installing windmills to reduce our dependence on external factors,” notes the Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute.
Frolov explains that two models of green generation development have now been developed in the world. “A European one, which means burning everything and everything. That means, shutting down nuclear power plants, shutting down coal power plants, and worsening the economics of gas power plants, just to keep growing wind and solar power generation capacities. And there is the Eastern model. , more precisely, even the Chinese model, where both “sun” and “wind” are developed, but at the same time they depend on other types of generations. Their development is parallel to the improvement of their economy. This model seems more logical, but the Europeans, you know Their pride does not allow them to learn from their elders from a historical point of view, comrades,” the expert believes.
Leonid Krutakov draws attention: the International Energy Agency recognizes that 80% of technologies are not enough to release renewable energy. As Gates says, solar energy during the day at noon is comparable to the price of gas, and at night it is a thousand times more expensive because there is no sun. The wind sometimes blows, sometimes it doesn’t. So, without hydrocarbons, without reserves, the maximum that can be achieved from renewable energy is, I think, 30% of the total energy balance. Everything else will be provided by conventional energy, and nothing can be done about it even from an economic point of view, because all the energy being replaced is subsidized, as in Europe, ”notes Krutakov.
Moreover, the prospects are very bleak, experts among themselves agree. “Crises will recur until all these lessons are learned correctly,” Frolov confirms.