Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday during a government hour in the State Duma, that by 2035, the share of renewable energy in the Russian energy balance will grow to 4%.
The general scheme for the placement of electric power installations establishes a rational structure of generation capacities until 2035, which will be generally preserved. There will be small changes in terms of reducing the share of thermal generation, increasing the share of renewables (RES) to about 4%, and the rest of the indicators will remain roughly the same,” Novak said.
RES-based generation is built in Russia under power supply agreements (guaranteeing investors a base return of 12% due to increased consumer payments over 15 years). According to this program, by 2024, about 5.4 gigawatts of green capacity should be built in Russia. According to Moody’s analysts, after that only 1% of the electricity generated in Russia will be produced on the basis of renewable sources.
The government is now discussing extending the program until 2035. Its parameters have not yet been determined, but at recent meetings it was decided to limit the program to investments of 400 billion rubles. for 11 years. According to the Market Council, this will be enough to build another 5.4 gigawatts of green capacity.
In 2018, according to the Ministry of Energy, in Russia, the installed capacity of the entire power system was 250.4 gigawatts; School of Management “Skolkovo” Alexei Khokhlov. Taking into account the subsidy programs, the renewable energy capacity could be about 4% of the installed capacity of the power system, Khokhlov says. However, according to his calculations, the share of renewable energy in generation will be much lower: with an average annual growth rate of 1%, by 2035 the share of green energy in total generation will be about 2%.
The output may be higher, considering the increase in microgeneration from rooftop solar panels among the population, Khokhlov points out. The State Duma is now studying laws on microgeneration, which will allow owners of stations with a capacity of up to 15 kW to sell excess electricity to the network and exempt them from paying personal income tax. In 2018, the Ministry of Energy announced the launch of the One Million Solar Roof Program in Russia, which provides for the installation of up to 3.5 gigawatts of solar panels on the roofs of homes. If these programs make the installation of home plants more attractive, there could be about 5 GW of such installations by 2035, Khokhlov says, as a result, by 2035, renewable energy capacity in Russia will reach 15 GW – this is 6% of the total installed energy. capacity or 2.5% of the total output.
The representative of the Renewable Energy Development Association said that the share of renewable energy sources today, excluding large hydroelectric power plants, in the total generation is less than 0.2%. In order to increase the share of green electricity to 4%, about 20 additional gigawatts will have to be built. According to the association, the new renewable energy development program allows for the construction of up to 10 gigawatts more. “It can be assumed that another 10 GW will be achieved through other mechanisms, including retail markets,” says the representative of the association.